According to recent data from the federal government’s Centre for Population, Melbourne is expected to surpass Sydney as the nation’s largest metropolis within a decade.
Melbourne will overtake Sydney in population by 2031-32, according to the government’s annual Population Statement, despite the Victorian capital seeing a significant pandemic-related exodus.
Prior to the pandemic, Melbourne was on course to overtake Sydney as the most populous city in 2026, but the city’s rolling COVID-19 lockdowns caused a 1.6 percent decline in population and pushed things back.
The analysis predicted that over the following ten years, Victoria would account for a disproportionally large 34 percent of Australia’s average annual overseas migrant intake.
For the next ten years, Melbourne’s population is projected to grow by an average of 1901 people every week due to a continuous “natural rise” brought on by more births than deaths.
Sydney’s population is anticipated to increase as well, albeit more gradually, at a rate of 1.2 percent year.
Sydney is predicted to have a population of 6.06 million by 2032 or 2033, compared to Melbourne’s 6.1 million.
However, New South Wales will continue to be the most populous state, with 9.1 million residents compared to Victoria’s 7.8 million, by 2032–2033.
Demographer Mark McCrindle commented on his website that it won’t be the first time Sydney has lost the distinction of being the most populous city.
Melbourne was Australia’s largest metropolis up until the 1890s, he argued, because of the Gold Rush.
“Although just one in four Victorians lived in Melbourne at the time, it was a minor player in Victoria’s development. Today, Melbourne is the home of three out of four Victorians.”
Queensland’s population is anticipated to continue growing rapidly in the meanwhile, continuing a pattern started during the pandemic when 40,000 people migrated to the state.
The population of the Sunshine State is anticipated to increase by another million by 2032–2033.
Overall, the research predicts that Australia’s population will reach 30 million by 2032–2033 and 39 million by 2060–2061.
Since the epidemic, Australia’s fertility rates have increased after falling to record lows.
According to the most available data, there will be 1.66 children born to each woman in 2021–2022, an increase from 1.58.
